Plunge on swine flu vaccine just plain gambling
The recent outbreak of swine flu has sent speculators scrambling to buy into Biota, the company responsible for the Tamiflu vaccine in the hope of making a quick dollar. But is this really smart investing or just plain gambling?
On Friday 24 April Biota closed at $0.87 before rising 78.16 percent to a high of $1.79 just two trading days later (Tuesday 28 April). Six days later it had fallen 41 percent in price, which means anyone who purchased the stock after 24 April would be sitting on a loss. Gambling on a stock rising in price as a result of market announcements is extremely risky and definitely not smart investing.
It is important to remember that what goes up fast can also come down fast and often much faster if people panic. Smart investors know, however, that long-term profits are only generated through astute buying of good quality shares utilising sound money management principles. It is for this reason why I advocate investors stay away from investing based purely on market announcements simply because the majority of investors end up entering the stock too late and as a consequence suffer losses as the share falls back to its true value.
Right now the market is presenting some great opportunities to purchase good quality blue chip shares for the expected rise, however, I would urge all investors entering the market to set a stop loss as the run up will be short, lasting around 8 weeks into the yearly high.
Dale Gillham
Chief Analyst
Wealth Within
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I don’t agree with your statement -buying biota share just plain gambling.
may i ask you whetheryou do reseach on biota company?
Stockpiling
A number of national governments have commenced or indicated their intention to commence the stockpiling of Relenza™, in preparation for a possible influenza pandemic. The U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Holland and Australia have all ordered Relenza™ as part of their pandemic planning strategy. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has indicated that its 2009 production capacity is running at 50-60 million treatment packs per year.
can you predit/ analysis how much royaties will biota earn for the stockpiling? did you know anything about Lani-cs-8958? They are in Phase 3 trial and waiting for approval in Japan. and they are also numeral drug in the trial such as HCV etc.
And today Australia government puchase 1.6 Million course of Relenza
because they scare of Tamiflu resistance and we know that many countries will follow the same.
So , can you please analyse how much revenue and how well the company is doing before you making such a comment. I think you should do more reseach before making comment
Hi Ozstock, Thank you for brining this to my attention and you are totally correct, it was a typo on my behalf. In the days leading up to me writting my report I had many journalist talking about Tamiflu and it got stuck in my brain for some reason. This highlights even more the content of my article at why people would speculate in buying Biota when even our own government is not buying Relenza.
I have to agree with you that our governement should have a carved in stone policy of buying Australian made not just in this case but in all cases as long as the product is equal or superior to other manaufacturers.
Thank you once again for picking this typo up.
Please issue a correction to your statement about \”Biota, the company responsible for the Tamiflu vaccine \”.
Tamiflu is Biota\’s competitor. Biota\’s drug is Relenza which is marketed by GSK.
Such mistake causes lots of angst. It is severely embarassing enough that our own Australian Government purchased large quantities of foreign Tamiflu instead of our local Relenza.
I know the neighbours grass is always Greener. But in this case, Relenza is scientifically superior. Do some research into the many suspected side effects of Tamiflu. It is very sad to see how we Aussies once again stuff up ourselves, even though we can develop something like Relenza which is world class standard.